Gearing up for a new week

The US Prelim GDP  last Friday which was expected to be at 0.4% came out above that and actually reached our deviation trigger which was 0.3%, the actual figure was 1.0%, We saw a move in the US Dollar, me and my team sold NZD, EUR and JPY and also using the correlation of Gold to the US Dollar, we sold xauusd as well, learn how to trade gold HERE. The upcoming week is packed with important data and the NFP which is the most significant data this coming Friday, learn more about the Non-Farm Payroll’s future dates HERE. The most successful trades, are the well planned ones.




29TH February Building Approvals 8:30pm 2:30am 1st March -2.9% AUD
29th February Cash Rate 11:30pm 5:30am 1st March 2.00% AUD
29th February RBA Rate Statement 11:30pm 5:30am 1st March AUD
1st March Manufacturing PMI 5:30am 11:30am 52.3% GBP
1st March Canada GDP 9:30am 3:30pm 0.1% CAD
1st March ISM Manufacturing PMI 11:00am 5:00pm 48.5 USD
1st March GDP 8:30pm 2:30am 2nd March 0.5% AUD
2nd March Construction PMI 5:30am 11:30am 55.5 GBP
2nd March ADP Non-farm Employment Change 9:15am 3:15pm 185K USD
2nd March Trade Balance 8:30pm 2:30am 3rd March -3.22B AUD
3rd March Services PMI 5:30am 11:30am 55.1 GBP
3rd March Unemployment Claims 9:30am 3:30pm 271k USD
3rd March ISM Manufacturing PMI 11:00am 5:00pm 49.8 USD
3rd March Retail Sales 8:30pm 2:30am 4th March 0.4% AUD
4th March Trade Balance 9:30am 3:30pm -1.0B CAD
4th March Average Hourly Earnings 9:30am 3:30pm 0.25 USD
4th March Non-Farm Employment Change 9:30am 3:30pm 195k USD
4th March Trade Balance 9:30am 3:30pm -43.5B USD
4th March Unemployment Rate 9:30am 3:30pm 4.9% USD


Few common excuses that traders make

img_20161011_220541-1We (traders) at some point have messed up, like really messed up our accounts, especially traders who went straight to the markets and traded their real money without proper guidance/training (yours truly is as guilty as charged). I did that as well, I somehow thought I was too smart to fail but I think I missed the part that, one needs to learn first then remove the (L) and earn, all I wanted was to earn right away, I paid the price though, enough about me. This post is about the few excuses that traders (you can take me off the list now) make every time they fail. It seems like a normal thing to find someone to blame, but sometimes it is all our fault you know, listed below are the most common excuses of all times.

1.Blame it on bad luck.

Market has no favoritism, it gives everyone a fair chance to dive in. If you are facing losses day in and day out, it is not bad luck at all. You simply need to pay more attention so that you can identify the problem and find out what makes you to lose so much, but  the first thing that comes to mind is to find someone/something to shift the blame to. Lets learn to look within, before shifting the blame, because most of the time, we create the mess ourselves.

2. Blame the unexpected economic news

Ooh well, I have done this a countless times in my early days of trading. First of all, the economic news are never really a surprise, there are hundreds of sites that provide us with information and daily economic news as they unfold, you can actually check the calendar for the whole week/month or more, in that way, you’ll be able to avoid being on positions prior to the release of any important economic data. Many traders would argue that the effect of news release never last, but unfortunately, it is that same effect that never last that is the main cause of their positions being stopped out or thrown to the wrong side of the markets in a split second, creating major losses or even blowing their trading accounts, unless maybe you are trading on a monthly chart (which is rare for day traders), an interesting part though is that, the people who are forever saying that the effect never lasts are day traders who trade daily charts and shorter time frames, and they are mostly affected but they are still not paying attention, take yourself off this list and be an informed trader who listens to the market. It is our own responsibility to listen to the markets, you do not have to be a die-hard fundamentalist, but you need to pay attention, the market doesn’t know that we even exist and it does not owe us anything, click HERE  for economic calendar and be informed.

3.Blame the broker

You came across a link of a broker online, you started to talk to them and they called you to assist you to set up your account and they made all kinds of promises, how they’ll call you every day and actually trade with you blah blah (you know the story), most brokers are very supportive and they actually do that, they do call you to assist in every way possible, but they are also in business, they cannot really dedicate all their time teaching you for free , it always works better when you already know how to trade, the assistance comes in handy. It is still your responsibility to take it upon yourself to find a mentor or a teacher, read as much as you can, the assistance you get from a broker will never be enough, they are doing their part to assist you, do your part as well, find a mentor.

4.Blame the “gurus”

When a trader follows many gurus, he/she becomes more confused as to which method to follow, and it becomes dangerous when you try to trade your real money by following many methods, select few people to follow, try not to confuse yourself by trying to do everything at once, traders who trade their real money by following lots of gurus tend to fail and they experience more losses as compared to people who have mentors and follow few gurus. Remember, every guru has the ‘best’ strategy/method. I know few traders who are still failing even with the kind of knowledge that they have, the problem is when you  learn a skill and expect to make it right away, the process to being a successful trader goes like:

Learn>>Practice/Demo trade>>Go live>>Continue practicing and using what you’ve learned>> Continue Learning>>Master the skill>>Earn with ease and be a sustainable and a profitable trader forever (that is how a successful trader is born). Get yourself into this list.

But for most traders it goes like: Learn>>Practice/Demo trade>>Go Live>>Stop practicing>>Stop using the knowledge that you have>>Trade on Tips/Stop listening to your mentor>>Find a new guru>>Trade higher volumes even when your equity is decreasing>>Use new strategies (trading your real money) that you do not even give a chance to see if they work>>Join Forex forums/groups>>Get more confused and lastly, lose all your money. (that is why there are traders who are funding their accounts every month). Take yourself off this list please.

Then when all is done, you start blaming the gurus. You have a responsibility to decide how it is going to be for you. I have done all the above mentioned as well, and it got me nowhere. The only way to master any skill is to practice what you know, not adding new strategies everyday. You’ll be a jack of all trades and a master of none and you’ll never make money in Forex. Thank you for stopping by and happy new week.



Non-Farm Payroll – What is NFP

Non-Farm Payroll also known as U.S Employment change/NFP is one of the leading indicators in Forex market. The NFP focuses on jobs created or lost in the current month, and that exclude farm/agricultural workers hence the name Non-Farm Payroll. We (traders) look for that small change or shift in the figure released as compared to the previous month. Because NFP is released every first Friday of each month, there are previous and also forecast/expected figures. When the figure comes out above forecast, it means more jobs were created (excluding farm workers) and the market perceives that as good for currency involved (USD), and when it comes out below forecast, the opposite is perceived. NFP is the most watched economic event of the month. During this period, the market becomes volatile. NFP is also a leading indicator in determining the U.S economic growth and inflation. There is another economic event that is released along with NFP, it is called Average Hourly Earnings. Average Hourly Earnings is overlooked by many traders. It is also released every first Friday of the month at the same time as NFP.

What is Average hourly Earnings and how does is affect the NFP figures

Average Hourly Earnings is also released by the Bureau of Labor statistics and it measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor or amount that the employees make per hour in the current month, and that excludes the farm/agricultural industry, it is also released every first Friday of the month at the same time as NFP. I believe it should not be overlooked, I have overlooked it a couple of times and I ended up being confused by the NFP outcomes. When businesses pay more for the labor, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. When the NFP figure comes out above forecast, it means more jobs were created, but when the Average Hourly Earnings comes out below forecast, it also means the amount that the workers are making per hour has decreased, which then also contribute to their spending, that is where the conflict is, the results must be in sync with each other. It happened again on the previous NFP (5th Feb), the figures were clashing, see screenshot below taken from previous NFP, next time when you trade NFP, try not to overlook the Average Hourly Earnings.


My past experience of trading NFP has taught me to look deeper than just the NFP figure, I have been disappointed so many times, when the NFP figure was so good and also the deviation trigger reached, but US Dollar never rallied as expected. Keeping a trading journal and doing post analysis on your trades and also having a trading plan is good practice and that is how you can improve and gain more skill, that is how I got to realize that I needed to pay attention to the Average Hourly Earnings. If you have been trading NFP, I am definitely sure you have seen what I am talking about and hopefully you’ll pay attention next time. Thank you for stopping by, below are the dates to diaries for the NFP 2016.

                           NON-FARM PAYROLL SCHEDULE 2016    
January 08
February 05
March 04
April 01
May 06
June 03
July 08
August 05
September 02
October 07
November 04
December 02


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